With two games to go in the regular season, only three of the 16 NWSL teams are still alive in the race for the Shield, the prize awarded to the team with the most points at the end of the regular season. Currently, Gotham FC is in first with 55 points, San Diego Wave FC has 54 and Washington Spirit has 52.
Let’s break down what it would take for each team to win.
A few notes to get us started. At the end of the season, if teams are level on points, the first three tiebreakers, in order, are Goal differential, Most total wins, and Most goals scored.
Currently, Gotham and the Wave each have a goal differential of +13. The Spirit’s is +14.
A win earns three points, a draw earns one point, and a loss zero points.
Gotham’s Path to the Shield (55 pts; at Orlando, then vs. Utah)
Gotham earns | Total Pts | How Wave FC and Spirit Finish |
6 pts (WW) | 61 | They win the Shield even if both teams win out. |
4 pts (WD) | 59 | Wave loses or draws one or more (that is, earns 4 points or less). |
3 pts (WL) | 58 | Wave earns 3 points or less (WL, DD, DL, or LL). Spirit loses or draws one or more. Tie: A Wave win-draw or a Spirit win-win, goes to Goal Differential. |
2 pts (DD) | 57 | Wave earn 2 points or less (DD, DL, LL). Spirit loses or draws one or more. Tie: A Wave win-loss, goes to Goal Differential. |
1 pt (DL) | 56 | Wave earns 1 point or less (DL or LL). Spirit earns 3 points or less (WL, DD, DL or LL). A Wave draw-draw or a Spirit win-draw ties and goes to Goal Differential. |
0 pts (LL) | 55 | Wave loses both. Spirit earns 2 points or less. A Wave draw-loss or a Spirit win-loss ties and goes to Goal Differential. |
San Diego Wave FC’s Path to the Shield (54 pts; vs. Boston, then at Bay)
Wave earns | Total Pts | What has to happen |
6 pts (WW) | 60 | Gotham loses or draws one or more. Spirit can’t reach 60. |
4 pts (WD) | 58 | Gotham earns 2 points or less. Spirit earns 4 points or less. A Gotham win-loss or a Spirit win-win ties at 58 and goes to Goal Differential. |
3 pts (WL) | 57 | Gotham earns 1 point or less. Spirit earns 4 points or less. Tie: A Gotham draw-draw, goes to Goal Differential. |
2 pts (DD) | 56 | Gotham loses both. Spirit earns 3 points or less. Ties: A Gotham draw-loss or a Spirit win-draw, goes to Goal Differential. |
1 pt (DL) | 55 | Only a tie is possible: Gotham loses both OR Spirit earns 3 points, then Goal Differential between Gotham and Wave and Spirit decides. |
0 pts (LL) | 54 | Cannot win the Shield |
Washington Spirit’s Path to the Shield (52 pts; at Kansas City, then vs. Chicago)
Spirit earns | Total Pts | What has to happen |
6 pts (WW) | 58 | Gotham earns 2 points or less and the Wave earns 3 points or less. A Gotham win-loss or a Wave win-draw ties at 58 and goes to Goal Differential. Spirit start at +14 vs. +13 for both. |
4 pts (WD) | 56 | Gotham loses both and the Wave earns 1 point or less. A Gotham draw-loss or a Wave draw-draw ties at 56 and goes to Goal Differential. |
3 pts (WL) | 55 | Gotham loses both and the Wave earns 1 point or less. Every team with 55 points is decided on Goal Differential. |
2 pts or less | 54 or below | Cannot win the Shield because Gotham can’t finish below 55. |
Spirit’s hardest game is the first one. Kansas City are 10-0-4 at home.
Website photo credit: Miguel Mejia/Miguel Mejia Photography
