Dakota Gray and Her Sports San Diego
With two matches left in the NWSL regular season, the San Diego Wave find themselves right in the thick of the playoff race. The Wave have 34 points on the year, with nine wins, seven draws, and eight losses. They currently sit in sixth place in the standings. From here, the Wave could finish as high as third place or fall all the way to ninth and miss the playoffs entirely, depending on how the final two weeks play out.
First, the Good News. If the Wave Win, They’re In.
The Wave FC control their destiny. Although other results can affect the standings, San Diego does not need to depend on other teams losing or tying to secure their playoff spot. If they win either of their final two matches, they’re in.
With two games remaining, the teams around the No. 8 playoff line are desperate for points. The No. 6 Wave can secure their place with a win or even a tie, as they currently have the tiebreaker advantage against their playoff-spot competitors.
If the Wave FC win this evening at home, they will have clinched a playoff spot. They’ll want to put their best foot forward against the Chicago Stars (2-11-11), the league’s lowest-ranked team. That’s crucial because their final match is against the No. 1 Kansas City Current (20-2-2), a team that has dominated this season and sits firmly in first place with 62 points. For perspective, the next closest team has 44.
Teams currently ranked 10 through 14 all have 27 points or fewer, meaning they cannot catch the Wave, even if San Diego were to lose both games and those teams were to win out. That leaves only the No. 7 Thorns with 34, No. 8 Racing Louisville with 33, and No. 9 Courage with 32 after North Carolina’s win yesterday, to thwart the Wave’s chances for a playoff spot.
Points Breakdown
If the Wave win one game, they earn 3 points for a total of 37 points, clinching a playoff spot.
If the Wave tie one and lose one, they earn 1 point, ending with 35 points. If the No. 9 North Carolina Courage win both games (and they already won one of the two yesterday with a 4-1 victory over Bay FC), they would also end with 35 points. However, the first tiebreaker is goal differential, and San Diego would very likely win that, given their current +3 versus NC’s -6.
Elimination Scenario
Here’s the only scenario that would bump Wave FC out of the playoffs.
San Diego Wave FC lose both games, AND
NC Courage win both, AND
Racing Louisville win both (+6), win and tie (+4), or tie both (+2). (If Racing Louisville tie one and lose one, the teams would be tied, but the Wave’s superior goal differential (+3 vs -4) gives them the edge), AND
Portland Thorns win both (+6), win one and tie one (+4), tie both (+2), or tie one and lose one (+1).
If all those scenarios happen, San Diego would fall from sixth to ninth and miss the playoffs. Keep track of the standings here.
What If There’s A Tie?
If teams finish with the same number of points, here’s the official NWSL tiebreaker order:
Goal differential
Most total wins (Regular Season only)
Most goals scored (Regular Season only)
Head-to-head results (total points accumulated)
Head-to-head most goals scored
Least disciplinary points accumulated
Yellow card: 1 point
Indirect red card (two yellows): 3 points
Direct red card: 4 points
Yellow card + direct red: 5 points
Coin flip (2 teams) or drawing of lots (3+ teams)
Each step in the process determines the standings until no tie remains.
Players to Watch During The Playoff Push
The Wave have one of the most talented rosters in the league. Here are a few players to watch during the team’s playoff push:
Delphine Cascarino / ForwardCascarino recorded her league-leading sixth assist of the 2025 season in the Wave’s last match and has also scored four goals. Her creativity and vision have been key to San Diego’s attack all year.
Adriana Leon / ForwardLeon matches Cascarino with four goals this season. The Wave need to find a way to get her more scoring opportunities as the playoffs approach. Her ability to find the back of the net will be vital in the final push.
Dudinha / MidfielderThe talented Brazilian signed in July has already made an impression with her technical skill and energy. She brings a scoring ability that can change a game in an instant and has 2 goals in her last 3 games.
Kenza Dali / Midfielder
A veteran presence in the midfield, Dali has provided leadership, as well as scoring ability, for the Wave this season. She has 4 goals and 2 assists on the year.
Kailen Sheridan / GoalkeeperOne of the best goalkeepers in the league over the last several seasons, Sheridan remains the anchor of the Wave defense. She has 60 saves on the year and her shot-stopping ability and composure under pressure will be crucial in these final two matches and the playoffs, if the Wave make it that far.
The Outlook
San Diego can clinch their playoff berth this weekend against Chicago, securing their spot before facing the powerhouse Kansas City Current in the season finale. Their postseason fate rests entirely in their own hands, a luxury few other teams in the playoff race have. Head coach Jonas Eidevall and company secured a major win last week, but they are still looking to return to mid-season form where they were at one point third in the NWSL standings. Kansas City has already secured the NWSL Shield and stands as the clear favorite to win the championship. However, the Wave remain one of the most talented and balanced teams in the league when they are firing on all cylinders. If they can find their rhythm and put all the pieces together heading into the postseason, San Diego has just as good a chance as anyone to challenge the dominant Current and make a deep playoff run.
Sat Oct 18 | 7 p.m. | vs. Chicago Stars | Snapdragon Stadium | Tickets |
Check here for the Kids Go Free offer. Hockey Tee Giveaway. Airs on ION