San Diego Wave FC will close out its regular season on Sunday at 2 p.m. PT against Bay FC at PayPal Park, with the NWSL Shield still within reach. Sitting second in the standings with 55 points and a 17W-8L-4D record, the Wave need a win over Bay and a loss by No. 1 Gotham FC to No. 6 Utah Royals to finish the season as league leaders. In this scenario, both teams will end with 58 points and the Wave will win the first tiebreaker, goal differential (more on that later).

The Wave enter the final match in strong form, going unbeaten in their last six games with five wins and one draw. Their recent run has kept them in the Shield race heading into the final day, but they will need to take care of business on the road while keeping an eye on the result in Utah.

Bay FC, meanwhile, sits 14th of 16 teams in the standings with 29 points and a 7W-16L-6D record. The team has struggled for consistency, having a record of W-L-L-D-L in its last five matches, but it will look to finish its season with a strong performance in front of its home crowd.

Sunday’s matchup also gives the Wave a chance to respond to their previous meeting with Bay. Bay earned a 1-0 win at Snapdragon Stadium, scoring the game’s only goal in the fifth minute. Despite the loss, San Diego held 54% possession and recorded 14 shots, including six on target, compared with Bay’s 10 shots and three on target. The Wave will look to turn that attacking pressure into goals this time around.

The regular-season head-to-head series has been competitive, with San Diego holding a narrow 3-2 advantage over Bay FC and no draws across their five meetings.

Bay’s attack is led by Karlie Lema, the team’s leading scorer with eight goals this season. Alex Pfeiffer is another player to watch, contributing three goals and a team-high three assists. The Wave will need to stay organized defensively and limit opportunities for Bay’s leading attacking threats while creating chances of their own.

San Diego also recently secured a contract extension for defender Mimi Van Zanten through 2029. Van Zanten provides a valuable two-way presence, combining her defensive ability and recovery runs with the skill to push forward, get up the line and deliver crosses into the box. Her versatility gives the Wave another option to create attacking opportunities while maintaining defensive balance.

Here’s why a Wave win and Gotham loss will result in both teams ending with the same number of points and the Wave taking the Shield:

1) Wave win and Gotham lose. Both would end the season with 58 points.

2) The first tiebreaker is goal differential. Currently, Gotham are +14 and the Wave are +13 on goal differential. A Wave win raises the team’s goal differential by at least one, to +14 or higher because to earn a win, the team must win by at least one goal. A Gotham loss lowers the team’s goal differential by at least 1, to +13 or worse, because if Gotham lose, they will lose by at least one goal, so the team’s goal differential goes down.