After a 2-1 win over the Orlando Pride on Oct. 2, the Wave officially clinched a playoff spot for the fourth time in five seasons. San Diego is now one of just three clubs in NWSL history to reach the postseason in four of five seasons.
But the regular season is far from over.
San Diego enters the international break in second place with 51 points, four points behind first-place Gotham FC and two points ahead of third-place Washington Spirit. With three matches remaining, the Wave still have a chance to challenge for the NWSL Shield (that is, most points in the regular season) while also trying to secure a top-four finish and a home playoff match.
Three Games Remain
The Wave return from the international break on Oct. 17 against the North Carolina Courage at First Horizon Stadium. San Diego then returns home Oct. 25 to face Boston Legacy FC at Snapdragon Stadium before finishing the regular season on the road against Bay FC on Nov. 1 at PayPal Park.
The three opponents sit in very different positions entering the final stretch.
North Carolina is still fighting for a playoff spot and currently sits in eighth place with 42 points, making the Oct. 17 matchup particularly important for both teams. Boston and Bay FC are outside the playoff picture, but both games could still have an impact on San Diego’s final position in the standings.
The schedules also gives the Wave an opportunity to finish the regular season strong. San Diego has won four straight games and six of its last seven, including road wins over Racing Louisville and Orlando.
The Shield Is Still Within Reach
While clinching a playoff spot was the first major goal, San Diego can still make a run at the NWSL Shield.
The Wave currently trail Gotham by four points with three games left. San Diego will need a strong finish and some help from Gotham to move into first place.A team earns three points for a win and one point for a draw.
The Wave have already picked up important results against teams near the top of the table. San Diego defeated No. 5 Kansas City 2-0 in September and has also earned wins over No. 3 Washington and No. 1 Gotham this season.
Finishing in first would give the Wave the strongest possible position heading into the postseason, but even finishing in the top four would be significant. The top four seeds host their quarterfinal matches, giving San Diego the opportunity to play in front of its home crowd during at least the first round of the playoffs. The quarterfinals and semifinals are hosted at the site of the team with the higher seed. The finals will be hosted at Audi Field in Washington D.C. on Nov. 21.
The Wave huddling up.
Nine Wave Players Take the Stage During International Break
Before the final three games, the Wave will have nine players receiving national team call-ups.
Kennedy Wesley and Trinity Byars were selected for the U.S. Women’s National Team, with Byars receiving her first senior national team call-up after a breakout season. Kimmi Ascanio, Melanie Barcenas and Gia Corley were selected for the U.S. U-23 team, while Barbara Bonansea will represent Italy. Luisa Agudelo will join Colombia, Mimi Van Zanten will represent Jamaica and Laila Harbert will join England’s U-23 team.
The break gives the rest of the roster time to recover and prepare for the final stretch, while head coach Jonas Eidevall will also have to manage the return of several key players from international duty ahead of the Oct. 17 match.
For Byars in particular, the next few weeks could be significant. The forward has recorded 10 goals and three assists this season and has become one of San Diego’s most important attacking players. Her first senior U.S. call-up adds another storyline to an already important finish.
A Team Peaking at the Right Time
San Diego’s recent form has made the final three games even more interesting.
The team's latest stretch has highlighted its ability to control games and consistently create chances. San Diego currently ranks first in the NWSL in both shots and shots on target, and second in passes. That production has been a major part of the team’s success this season, and the final three games will give the Wave an opportunity to turn that pressure into even more results as it prepares for the playoffs.
San Diego has also shown it can win close games, including the 2-1 victory over Orlando in which it surrendered a second-half goal but held on for the win. The team has become more comfortable defending leads and managing difficult stretches late in matches.
With the playoffs secured, the final three games give Eidevall a chance to continue building toward the postseason while competing for the top spot in the standings.
What Comes Next
San Diego still has a chance to challenge for the Shield, while a top-four finish would guarantee a home quarterfinal. The Wave’s final regular-season home game against Boston on Oct. 25 will also give San Diego fans one last chance to see the team before the playoffs begin.
To Guarantee a Top-Four Finish
(and Home-Field First Round)
1) The Wave win at least one of their final three games (54+ points)
Only Gotham, Washington, and Utah can reach 54, so at most three teams finish ahead of them.
2) The Wave earn two draws and a loss (2 points, 53 points)
Gotham already has 55, so Washington, Utah, and KC would all need to get to 53, too. KC can only reach 53 by winning all three remaining games, which means beating Utah, and that caps Utah at 52 (so only Utah OR KC could get to 53, not both).
The Wave Fall Below Fourth Place in the Following Scenarios
A) The Wave have one draw and two losses (52 points), AND three teams besides Gotham earn 52 points or more. Three or more of the following would have to occur.
Washington wins one or more; Utah wins two or more; KC, Angel City, or Portland win their final three games (KC would get 53). Ties with Angel City or Portland at 52 would go to goal differential.
B) The Wave lose all three games (51 points), AND three teams besides Gotham (already with 55 points) earn 51 points or more. So, three or more of the following would have to occur.
Washington Spirit earn 2+ points, Utah Royal earn 5+ points, KC Current earn 7+ points; Angel City, Portland, North Carolina win all three games (North Carolina would end with 51 and win the tiebreaker, a higher goal differential than Wave).
After the regular season concludes Nov. 1, the playoff bracket will be finalized. The NWSL quarterfinals are scheduled for Nov. 6-8, followed by the semifinals Nov. 13-15 and the championship Nov. 21 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C.
San Diego has already secured its place in the postseason. Now, the final three games will determine whether the Wave enters the playoffs as a top-four seed, a Shield contender or both.
